Harry Skelton Jockey headshot

Harry Skelton's Expert Analysis

Leading jockey Harry Skelton gives his expert opinion on who will win National Hunt racing’s ultimate prize.

There is simply nothing like the Grand National, it’s the hardest challenge of the year without a doubt.

When you walk down those steps from the weighing room the buzz is incredible. There is nothing quite like National day, it’s the people’s race, the whole country gears up to watch it. It’s obviously a race you’d love to win.

The fences are completely unique. I’ve ridden in it a few times and the best I’ve finished is fifth in 2011 on Niche Market.

The most important thing is to get into a good rhythm. You’ve got to accept where you are on the first circuit, you don’t have to be right at the front.

When Neptune Collonges won it he was nearly last jumping the first ditch. You just need to hunt round the first circuit and try to make sure you’re still in your comfort zone.

Once you get over Canal Turn on the second circuit, that’s where the race really starts, but it’s a long way home from there. You’ve got Valentines and that big ditch four out. It’s when your horse is starting to get a bit tired and those fences are a real test.

I’ve never been in with a chance at the Elbow so far, but those last 200 yards are the ultimate test of stamina and horsemanship.

This year’s race looks a bit different to normal in that we could have one of the shortest priced favourites for a very long time.

Tiger Roll has obviously been a mighty horse, winning last year’s race and also at the Cheltenham Festival four times.

Red Rum was the last to win it back-to-back, and it’s not going to be easy for Tiger Roll, although you’d have to say that he seems in better form than last season. His two runs this year have been excellent.

Trevor Hemmings loves nothing more than a Grand National winner and both of his runners should be respected after running cracking trials in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Of the two, I’d marginally favour Lake View Lad who I have chased home twice this season in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. He is in top form and should enjoy the challenge of the National.

Vintage Clouds will have no weight on his back and is an out-and-out stayer. He just missed the cut last year and I’m sure Sue Smith will have had this race in mind for him for some time.

His second in the Ultima was an excellent run which should have set him up perfectly for this. He’ll relish the extra distance.

Ultragold has an incredible record over the National fences having won the last two runnings of the Topham Chase, he absolutely loves it round there.

Connections have decided to go for the big one this year rather than going for a hat-trick in the Topham and he has to be respected even though there is a doubt about the trip.

Harry Skelton Jockey headshot
Harry Skelton’s Grand National 1-2-3-4
1. Lake View Lad
2. Vintage Clouds
3. Tiger Roll
4. Ultragold
Place Bet

Statistically the best?

Whilst the past doesn’t always predict the future, previous races suggest this year’s Grand National will be won by a horse with around 11 characters in their name, whose jockey is wearing green silks, and is priced around 33/1.

The closest match from the confirmed runners is:

Past Grand National winners

It’s fair to say that, in recent years, some Grand National winners have raised a few eyebrows; none more so than 100-1 shot, Mon Mome. Discover which horses and jockeys have won the most recent runnings, below.

Winning Stats

The Grand National dates back to 1839, when the aptly named Lottery was ridden home by English jockey, Jem Mason. Over the last 50 years, only 15 English jockeys have crossed the line first. In that time, 46 per cent of the winning riders have come from Ireland, and exactly half the victorious horses were aged 9 or 10.

Nationality Of Jockeys

Age Of Horses

The Grand National by numbers

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3 Red Rum is the most successful horse, having won the Grand National three times: 1973, 1974 and 1977.
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3 Number of grey horses to win the Grand National The Lamb (1868 & 1871), Nicolaus Silver (1961) and Neptune Collonges (2012)
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11/4 The shortest priced winner in Grand National history was Poethlyn, victorious in 1919.
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100/1 In 2009, Mon Mome became the longest-priced winner of the National for 42 years.
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5 The youngest age of horse to win the Grand National, done on five seperate occasions.
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08:47 Fastest Winning Time: 8 minutes 47.8 seconds – Mr. Frisk (1990).
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66 The largest field was in 1929 when 66 faced the starter.
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13 Number of mares to win the Grand National, last done so in 1851 by Nickel Coin.